上海市建筑領域碳中和預測分析
Prediction and analysis of carbon neutrality in building sector in Shanghai
摘要：
基于推動構建人類命運共同體的責任擔當和實現可持續發展的內在要求，中國將力爭2030年前實現碳達峰、2060年前實現碳中和。上海作為中國東部的國際大都市，建筑領域承擔著重要的減排任務和責任。本文應用排放因子法測算了2005—2019年上海市建筑領域二氧化碳排放量，以Kaya恒等式為基礎建立了碳排放計算模型，結合情景分析法，預測并比較了不同情景下2020—2060年上海市建筑領域碳排放量。結果顯示，延續現有政策的情景下，建筑領域能夠實現2025年的控制目標，但為了實現2060年的碳中和目標，需要強化現有的節能措施力度。最后根據預測結果，提出了上海市建筑領域節能減排措施建議。
Abstract：
Based on the responsibility of promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and the inherent requirements of achieving sustainable development, China will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. As an international metropolis in eastern China, Shanghai has an important emission reduction task and responsibility in the building sector. In this paper, the emission factor method is used to measure the carbon dioxide emissions in the building sector in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019, and a carbon emission calculation model is established based on the Kaya identity. Combined with the scenario analysis method, the carbon emissions of building sector in Shanghai from 2020 to 2060 is predicted and compared under different scenarios. The results show that the building sector can achieve the 2025 control target under the continuation of existing policies, but in order to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target, existing energy saving measures need to be strengthened. Finally, according to the prediction results, the suggestions on energy saving and emission-reduction measures in the building sector in Shanghai are put forward.
Keywords:carbonemission;buildingsector;carbonneutrality;Kayaidentity;scenarioanalysis